What's Left of Climate Science?
In an interview on BBC radio (30 October) the author of the Stern Report is reported to have commented that, at the time of the last Ice Age 10,000 years ago, temperatures were 5 C cooler than now, and that in 100 years' time temperatures could be 5 degrees warmer than now.
The implied point appears to be that the 5 C warming is the fault of mankind, and that scientists believe a 5 C rise in temperature over the next 100 years is likely.
ABD Environment Spokesman, Ben Adams, comments:
"No human influence caused our planet to enter the last Ice Age and no human influence caused us to exit from it. This should be a pointer as to the true, natural causes of the constant climate change our planet faces".
The causes of natural climate change are as follows.
- Longest timescales: cosmic ray flux changes, linked to the galactic year
- Medium timescales: the Milankovitch cycles in the Earth's axial tilt and orbital eccentricity
- Shorter timescales: changes in the eruptivity (not merely brightness) of the Sun
- Random timescales: volcanism, space impacts, nearby supernovae
As concluded by Caillon et al (2003) carbon dioxide is not the forcing that drives the climate system. The maximum possible warming from this plant food gas is less than 1 C. Any extra warming depends on increasing amounts of water vapour in the upper troposphere, and the only place this exists is in disreputable computer climate models. At all periods of geological history studied, carbon dioxide has never led a period of warming. During those times when temperature and carbon dioxide varied in synchrony, the temperature change always came first. The cause and effect of man made global warming is in the wrong order.
As to the future, the comment that in 100 years we might / could / may see temperatures a further 5 C warmer than now is disingenuous. The IPCC scenario referred to (A1F1) only arose at the request of a few governments, it was not initially included by scientists. Once published, IPCC Lead Author and climate expert Dr John Christy commented that this scenario was "the one that's not going to happen" yet of course it captured the headlines, which doubtless was the intention. It has now been re-heated and served up as yesterday's myth cooked again.
The name of the game here is scaremongering to justify major hikes in taxation, presented as a means to 'save the planet' when in fact they are merely lifestyle taxes designed to 'boost government coffers' and reduce mobility, control individuals and tackle capitalism. Climate change cannot possibly be tackled by any human on this planet.
During the present climate optimum, carbon dioxide trends do not match climate trends. Solar eruptivity is however an exact match. Climate science is only just waking up to the fact that there is more to solar variability than sunspots and brightness changes. These solar cycles are about to take the climate back into a cooling phase starting around 2012.
With the prospect of Al Gore advising Gordon Brown we can expect more unscientific extortionate green taxes on drivers and businesses.