Mystic Met: A Chronology of Failed Met Office Predictions
How Accurate are the Met Office Climate Models?
The Met Office is the official UK Meteorological agency and a key promoter of climate alarmism, which claims that simulation models are now accurate predictors of both global and local effects of stimuli to the climate, such as volcanoes and carbon dioxide emissions (BBC "Climate Wars" series).
"If the models are so reliable, the Met Office should be able to get the general trends right for the British weather," said ABD Environment Spokesman, Paul Biggs.
Here the ABD presents a chronology of notable predictions via Met Office press releases starting on January 4th 2007, and invites readers to judge the accuracy of the Met Office climate models for themselves:
- "2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office."
- On April 11th, 2007 they issued a press release stating "there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 C
... there are no indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly wet summer."
This was interpreted by The Guardian as "Britain set to enjoy another sizzling summer."
- On August 31st, The Met announced that summer 2007 was the wettest on record with "normal temperatures," although his description did not adequately describe the miserable summer - because high temperatures and sunshine were well below normal.
- On August 10th, The Met Office announced new climate models, which included modeling of "the effects of sea surface temperatures as well as other factors such as man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, projected changes in the sun's output and the effects of previous volcanic eruptions". The same press release forecast that "2014 is likely to be 0.3 C warmer than 2004."
In fact, global temperatures in 2007 dropped nearly 0.8 C according to satellite data, one of the sharpest drops on record. In order to hit The Met's 2014 prediction, there will have to be a large increase over the next few years.
So how is The Met Office doing in 2008 with the new models?
The current cooling trend is set against a background of rapidly rising CO₂ emissions. According to the latest data released by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), CO₂ levels rose by 3.5% a year between 2000 and 2007, compared with the 2.7% projected by the IPCC. During the 1990s warming trend, emissions rose by only 0.9% a year.
- On April 3rd, 2008 the Met made their annual UK summer forecast — "The coming summer is expected to be a 'typical British summer', according to long-range forecasts issued today. Summer temperatures across the UK are more likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or above average for the three months of summer."
- On August 29th, 2008 The Met Office reported that the summer of 2008 was "one of the wettest on record across the UK."
- This is how The Independent described the UK summer - "It has been a miserable summer for bugs as well as people...The combined effect of low temperatures and rain has presented Britain's invertebrates with a double whammy."
- On September 22nd, 2008 The Guardian reported the Met Office claim that, "Anyone who thinks global warming has stopped has their head in the sand," which referred to climate sceptic Nigel Lawson and attempted to play down the fact that there has been no global warming trend since 2002.
China is now the biggest emitter of CO₂ and responsible for 21% of the world's emissions — up from 14% in 2002. This knocks the United States into second place, contributing 19% of global emissions. India is fourth, but looks set to take third place from Russia this year. The UK contributes about 1.8% to global man-made CO₂ emissions. Currently, more than half of the global emissions come from less developed countries.
ABD Environment spokesman Paul Biggs said:
“Why should we believe predictions for 2014 or longer, when the Met Office has so much trouble predicting the weather and temperatures a few months in advance? Climate models can be useful diagnostic tools, but they aren't crystal balls. However, the next solar maximum due around 2012 might be expected to add to global temperatures. If the Met Office thinks that the weather or climate can be predictably controlled or influenced by attempting to manipulate atmospheric CO₂, particularly in the light of rapidly rising emissions from developing countries, then it has its own head deep in the sand.”
Notes for Editors about the ABD